Monthly Commentaries

“The idea that the future is unpredictable is undermined every day by the ease with which the past is explained.” – Daniel Kahneman Investors face many challenges over a market cycle. Yes, they need sufficient returns to meet funding or spending obligations, but they also must manage portfolio risk and avoid too much concentration on […]

“Cause when you worry your face will frown, and that will bring everybody down. Don’t worry, be happy.” From a song by Bobby McFerrin There is an old journalism colloquialism, “If it bleeds, it leads.” Never has it been more true in our society than today. As we gradually move away from COVID, the ascendancy […]

“I’ve missed more than 9,000 shots in my career. I’ve lost almost 300 games. Twenty-six times I’ve been trusted to take the game-winning shot and missed. I’ve failed over and over and over again in my life. And that is why I succeed.” Michael Jordan We all tend toward innumeracy generally, and we’re especially bad […]

“Denial ain’t just a river in Egypt.” Mark Twain In truth, I’m not a huge baseball fan. But great lessons can come from anywhere and, as in this case, occasionally from the diamond. In 2013, Mark Appel was drafted as the number one pick by the Houston Astros. In his first 44 innings as a […]

“There is nothing new in Wall Street. There can’t be because speculation is as old as the hills. Whatever happens in the stock market today has happened before and will happen again.” Jesse Livermore Growing macro concerns focused on inflation, rising interest rates leading to a potential economic slowdown, and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine […]

“Logic is the subject that’s helped me the most in picking stocks, if only because it taught me to identify the peculiar illogic of Wall Street. Wall Street thinks just as the Greeks did. The early Greeks used to sit around for days and debate how many teeth a horse has. They thought they could […]

“And the seasons they go round and round, And the painted ponies go up and down, We’re captive on the carousel of time…” Joni Mitchell, The Circle Game Russia escalates its military presence and leverages nuclear threats. The US Federal Reserve announces the pullback of its massive monetary stimulus. Tensions escalate in US-China relations, while […]

“Lions and tigers, and bears, oh my!” Dorothy in The Wizard of Oz It seems appropriate to begin with a refrain from the Wizard of Oz this month. Though public equities provide long-term investing success, this “yellow brick road” has many twists and turns to navigate, and January, as with the period between February and […]

“Dig deep, own long” Dennis Starritt, Laurus Investment Counsel Because stocks have rebounded so strongly despite the ongoing effects of the coronavirus, we’re frequently asked about the level of valuations in the market. In response, we acknowledge the words of Wharton School professor Dr. Jeremy Siegel. Siegal notes that over 90% of a stock’s worth […]

“I think you have to learn that there is a company behind every stock, and that there is only one real reason why stocks go up. Companies go from doing poorly to doing well, or small companies grow to large companies.” Peter Lynch Truth told, there are plenty of things that keep me awake at […]

“It’s not whether you’re right or wrong that’s important, but how much money you make when you’re right and how much you lose when you’re wrong.” George Soros We are frequently asked why the average market capitalization of our small cap portfolio is “so high”. And our equally-frequent response is that, being long-term investors, some […]

“Quality is never an accident; it is always the result of intelligent effort” John Ruskin Last month we briefly discussed our concept of “quality investments”: well-managed businesses with reasonable growth outlooks, and the financial strength to be investible for over the intermediate or long term. While not an earthshaking concept, we were surprised by the […]