Over the past year, equity markets have rebounded from the price weakness experienced in 2022. The market correction that commenced in November 2021 led to significant declines in equity markets over the subsequent year. The US S&P 500 fell by -12.2%, while the Canadian TSX Composite experienced a more modest decline of -5.8%, buoyed by […]
View Article“Living is easy with eyes closed. Misunderstanding all you see.” – from “Strawberry Fields Forever” by The Beatles The Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman’s favorite formula relates to luck and skill: “My favorite formula was about success, and I wrote success equals talent plus luck and great success equals talent plus a lot of luck.” The […]
View Article“We are bamboozled by biases, fooled by fallacies, entrapped by errors, hoodwinked by heuristics, deluded by illusions.” – Koen Smets, poet We humans are shockingly prone to bad ideas, ideas that grow into terrible decisions, and then metastasize into actions that undermine, damage, or might even end our lives. We’d all like to think that […]
View Article“Quality is never an accident. It is always the result of intelligent effort.” – John Ruskin Think about your last big purchase. Whether a house, or car, or boat, or television – your evaluation a successful purchase was likely based on the highest quality item for the best price you could negotiate. However, turned around, […]
View Article“If you’re not aware that you’re not supposed to be able do something, the barriers to doing it are dramatically lessened.” – Sam Zell Over the past decade, there has been an increasing demand for private equity fund investment as investors have looked to diversify their portfolios and seek higher risk-adjusted returns. The demand has […]
View Article““Over the course of an investing life, stuff is going to happen—both good and bad—that no one saw coming. Instead of playing the guessing game, focus on the opportunities in front of you.” – Chris Mayer In the investment business, by far the best path to creating wealth – wealth being defined as assets/capital that […]
View Article“Experience without theory is blind, but theory without experience is mere intellectual play.” ” – Immanuel Kant Over more than a decade (2008-2019), baseball’s Major League home-plate umpires made every pitch call correctly on one team roughly twice per season. Among the 114 umpires with at least 5,000 called pitches during that time, the range […]
View Article“The idea that the future is unpredictable is undermined every day by the ease with which the past is explained.” – Daniel Kahneman Investors face many challenges over a market cycle. Yes, they need sufficient returns to meet funding or spending obligations, but they also must manage portfolio risk and avoid too much concentration on […]
View Article“Cause when you worry your face will frown, and that will bring everybody down. Don’t worry, be happy.” From a song by Bobby McFerrin There is an old journalism colloquialism, “If it bleeds, it leads.” Never has it been more true in our society than today. As we gradually move away from COVID, the ascendancy […]
View Article“I’ve missed more than 9,000 shots in my career. I’ve lost almost 300 games. Twenty-six times I’ve been trusted to take the game-winning shot and missed. I’ve failed over and over and over again in my life. And that is why I succeed.” Michael Jordan We all tend toward innumeracy generally, and we’re especially bad […]
View Article“Denial ain’t just a river in Egypt.” Mark Twain In truth, I’m not a huge baseball fan. But great lessons can come from anywhere and, as in this case, occasionally from the diamond. In 2013, Mark Appel was drafted as the number one pick by the Houston Astros. In his first 44 innings as a […]
View Article“There is nothing new in Wall Street. There can’t be because speculation is as old as the hills. Whatever happens in the stock market today has happened before and will happen again.” Jesse Livermore Growing macro concerns focused on inflation, rising interest rates leading to a potential economic slowdown, and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine […]
View Article“Logic is the subject that’s helped me the most in picking stocks, if only because it taught me to identify the peculiar illogic of Wall Street. Wall Street thinks just as the Greeks did. The early Greeks used to sit around for days and debate how many teeth a horse has. They thought they could […]
View Article“And the seasons they go round and round, And the painted ponies go up and down, We’re captive on the carousel of time…” Joni Mitchell, The Circle Game Russia escalates its military presence and leverages nuclear threats. The US Federal Reserve announces the pullback of its massive monetary stimulus. Tensions escalate in US-China relations, while […]
View Article“Lions and tigers, and bears, oh my!” Dorothy in The Wizard of Oz It seems appropriate to begin with a refrain from the Wizard of Oz this month. Though public equities provide long-term investing success, this “yellow brick road” has many twists and turns to navigate, and January, as with the period between February and […]
View Article“Dig deep, own long” Dennis Starritt, Laurus Investment Counsel Because stocks have rebounded so strongly despite the ongoing effects of the coronavirus, we’re frequently asked about the level of valuations in the market. In response, we acknowledge the words of Wharton School professor Dr. Jeremy Siegel. Siegal notes that over 90% of a stock’s worth […]
View Article“I think you have to learn that there is a company behind every stock, and that there is only one real reason why stocks go up. Companies go from doing poorly to doing well, or small companies grow to large companies.” Peter Lynch Truth told, there are plenty of things that keep me awake at […]
View Article“It’s not whether you’re right or wrong that’s important, but how much money you make when you’re right and how much you lose when you’re wrong.” George Soros We are frequently asked why the average market capitalization of our small cap portfolio is “so high”. And our equally-frequent response is that, being long-term investors, some […]
View Article“Quality is never an accident; it is always the result of intelligent effort” John Ruskin Last month we briefly discussed our concept of “quality investments”: well-managed businesses with reasonable growth outlooks, and the financial strength to be investible for over the intermediate or long term. While not an earthshaking concept, we were surprised by the […]
View Article“Quality Is Job One” Ford Motor Co. Campaign (1981-1998) Market pundits have expounded upon at length that, with an anticipated a change in the economic cycle, many investors are considering a rotation out of expensive growth into value stocks to reduce potential overexposure to high-priced volatility and advantage themselves as the pandemic gradually subsides. But […]
View Article“Tell the Wolf of Wall Street that the pigeons of San Francisco are going to eat his lunch!” Quote from a San Francisco day trader It has been an interesting beginning to 2021, as millions of amateur traders have taken on the pariah of Wall Street – short sellers – and, for the moment at […]
View ArticleThis month’s comment begins with another excerpt from Howard Marks, suggesting future market returns will be depressed as a result of low interest rates. While agreeing with Marks in principle, we are also aware that high quality companies have been commanding much higher valuations – a subset of the low interest rate environment. That has […]
View Article“…the low interest rates represent the dominant characteristic of the current financial environment, creating the dominant consideration for investors: the lowest prospective returns in history.” Howard Marks, October 2020 Despite this year’s extreme volatility, the past ten years have been an extraordinary time to be an equity investor. Following the last financial crisis, investors have […]
View ArticleIn a recent consultant conversation, I wondered why Canadian investors had shied away from small cap strategies over the past half-decade. Three reasons, I was informed: the general move away from public markets led institutional investors to private equity investments over public small caps; performance of small cap strategies relative to large caps; and, the […]
View ArticleListening to the “experts” on the TV or, heaven help us, reading their opinions in the newspaper, one might believe that the current uptrend in the markets is overdone. Or perhaps there might be an economic reversal to the April low. Or, even better yet, that there is a possible retrenchment of market prices to […]
View ArticleTrue, there are those who don’t really try to answer that question. For example, some momentum strategies have a valuation overlay, though most do not. And there are times when the relative performance derby causes fundamentally-oriented investors to toss their valuation discipline out the window. “As long as the music is playing,” as one infamous […]
View ArticleAs many of you know, our key message to clients and allocators is that investing begins, and ends, with people – whether our team, our clients, or the management we engage with on a regular basis that run the companies we invest in. As we move through the COVID-19 pandemic, each of these key groups […]
View ArticleThe devastating blow of the pandemic lockdown continues to unfold on the global economy, causing a near-stop to travel, migration, and gatherings. For those of us who continue to work while our physical workplaces are closed, to say we’re “working from home” is not quite accurate: we are confined to our homes due to a […]
View ArticleOur February comment was released following a difficult final ten days of the month – not that it relates to the current events. The events are, as it’s said, what they are. The market already understands that virtually everything in China is shut down. Autos sales have plummeted, 99% of nightclubs closed, 70% of restaurants […]
View ArticleThis month our CIO, Linda Lebrun, outlines why we believe management ownership of corporate stock best aligns them with shareholders. Simply put – we human beings are self-centered and respond well to incentives that appeal to our self-interest. One is simply more inclined to be more attentive if the incentive structure appeals. Linda’s note speaks […]
View ArticleThis month we speak to the narratives that pervade the investment ecosystem. Skimming through Damodaran’s “tribes” (storytellers and number crunchers) humorously reminds one of Twain’s “lies, damned lies, and statistics”. Yet the narrative plays an important part in a manager’s communication with clients and potential clients; after all, written commentary with supporting statistics can be […]
View ArticleIn a stunning announcement November 1st, Pengrowth Energy Corp. announced its sale to Cona Resources Ltd. for five cents a share and assumption of company debt. Once a $7.2 billion oil and gas exploration company, Pengrowth Energy has lost almost 99.6% of their equity value in the past six years. Over the past twelve months […]
View ArticleThe four most dangerous words in investing are “this time it’s different” according to John Templeton. At stock market tops, investors invariably use this rationale to justify their emotion-driven decisions. Howard Marks recent memo This Time Its Different is another must-read for the current environment. Particularly his reference on “perpetual prosperity from quantitative easing”. While […]
View ArticleThe CFA standard notes “Members and Candidates have a duty of loyalty to their clients and must act with reasonable care and exercise prudent judgment.” How does that fit with investing client monies in cannabis stocks or bitcoin. Or some of the high flyer tech names like Shopify or Lightspeed which, at this writing, have […]
View ArticleOver the past few years the Canadian investment industry has hollowed out, with far too many independent investment firms being acquired. These firms have either concentrated too heavily on a declining global asset class (Canada), or failed to build a successful succession/exit strategy for the original builders of the business. Or perhaps its simply the […]
View ArticleIn an interview last week, the great Charlie Munger said “more damage to the world comes from the cognitive glitches than does from malevolence.” Arthur Conan Doyle’s Sherlock Holmes noted “If you eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth.” And of course, Ockham’s Razor suggests that, all other things being equal, […]
View ArticleAccepting that investing is really hard, true investing – which we define as the allocation of capital to either entrepreneurs or company management requiring funds to exploit an opportunity to generate profits – in Canada is a monumental task. “No matter how great the talent or effort, some things just take time: You can’t produce […]
View Article“In the business world, the rearview mirror is always clearer than the windshield.” Warren Buffett With the recent acquisitions of Goldcorp by Newmont Mining and Solium Capital by Morgan Stanley, two more Canadian businesses have disappeared. Goldcorp joins a long list of Canadian miners to be scooped up by foreign acquirers over the past 15 […]
View Article“Let others believe markets can never be beat. Abstention on the part of those who won’t venture in creates opportunities for those who will.” Howard Marks from The Most Important Thing Snakes and Ladders is a classic children’s game, played between two or more players on a gameboard having numbered, gridded squares. A number of […]
View ArticleWe tend to believe October was a revaluation exercise; simply put, as interest rates rise so do discount rates reducing the valuation of future cash flows. While the downturn has been sharp, liquidity tightening remains benign and market/economic fundamentals remain strong. However, as we write this note, the markets are showing an upswing. Whether it […]
View ArticleWhile the equity investing landscape has admittedly turned more volatile in the past six months, we continue to believe most investors are so entrenched in “climbing a wall of worry” that they are missing a much more compelling story, as alluded to by Mr. Buckland. All this to say, for boutique equity investors like Laurus, […]
View ArticleWe have contended for some time that clients are best served owning small cap investments equally proportionate to traditional large cap investments. Investors, on the other hand, tend to perceive small cap investing as a volatile group, based on the actions of both a poorly constructed index and a group of poorly designed products. This […]
View ArticleWhat investment style will be best suited to markets where returns are limited? This month we suggest that business culture and it’s ability to strengthen intellectual resources plays just as important a role in the sustainability of a client’s risk-adjusted return. “The strongest assumption behind the law [of active management] is that the manager will […]
View ArticleThis months comment is a continuation of our series on future equity returns. There have been a number of articles published recently suggesting active management cannot outperform passive index returns as the “skew” – a handful of stocks which drive rising markets (think Amazon recently) – will always bias performance to the market. We contend […]
View ArticleThis month our comment looks toward the next couple of decades, contending that current market returns combined with a reversal to positive correlation may result in investment returns that don’t meet an investor’s future liability needs. At the very least, the fascination with index benchmarks will need re-thinking. “For new models of progress to arise, […]
View ArticleMade famous by Benjamin Graham back in the 1930s (who postulated that one’s loss would be greater buying a low quality business at a price that seems good value, than a high quality company at an excessively high price) and expounded upon by management consultants like Tom Peters (“In Search of Excellence”) and Michael Porter […]
View ArticleAs we noted in our last commentary, the intrinsic value of any investment rests on the free cash flow the business can generate over its remaining life, discounted back to present value at an appropriate rate. Obviously, one cannot actually know the precise timing and magnitude of cash flows even for the next few years let […]
View ArticleOver our past few monthly commentaries, we’ve discussed investments using Game of Thrones metaphors: castles (the company), moats (competitive advantage), and knights (strong management). This is our third and final piece – determining whether the investment is worthy of client capital. “It’s far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price, than a […]
View ArticleIn our commentary last month, we introduced the concept of moats and knights – companies with defendable, competitive moats and the “knights” whose sole purpose was to widen them. This month, we’ll further discuss these defenders of the realm; how to identify them and how to ensure quality and integrity is more important to them […]
View ArticleWith the highly acclaimed television series “Game of Thrones” beginning their seventh season in July, we are reminded of the above lesser-known Buffett quote. While there are plenty of investment firms suggesting investment in “moats”, there has been little explanation on how a company establishes a moat or, more importantly, defends one. Perhaps there are […]
View ArticleIt’s hard to fathom that Y2K was seventeen years ago. Remember the widespread fear that technology would collapse around us in the belief that everything that computers touched would be engaged in a catastrophic breakdown as the date changed from 1999 to 2000? Of course, with the exception of some minor software glitches the millennial […]
View ArticleThe new issue of Research magazine is now available and its theme is evidence-based investing. The issue included a great article from Bob Seawright (CIO of a San Diego advisory firm). We can’t fit the entire article here and recommend you take a look at the magazine in its entirety. “I realized technical analysis didn’t […]
View ArticleIf you were investing your own money, what type of investor would you be? Are you the conservative type – one who looks for an investment to generate cash flow while appreciating in asset value – or the aggressive type who looks for the “big win”? “Intrinsic value can be defined simply: It is the […]
View ArticleI’ve always been a fan of Charley Ellis. He has constantly challenged our industry to be better, criticizing the inability of the investment management business (he prefers to call it a business rather than a profession) to beat the market. He, like many other investors, has a bias for passive investing. He contends that increasing […]
View ArticleA great deal has been written and discussed about the move toward passive investment. A recent Bloomberg article written by Barry Ritholtz quoted Bill Miller, legendary US stock picker, as saying the shift is not really from active management to passive but from expensive passive investment management to inexpensive passive management. Miller suggests about 70% […]
View Article“In money management what sells is the illusion of certainty.” …John Hempton There has been a great deal of chatter recently on whether an investment process focused on acquiring “quality companies” (high future returns on capital through sustainable competitive advantage) is more marketing spin than reality. Much has been discussed about the sustainability of high […]
View Article“In Ajit, we have an underwriter equipped with the intelligence to properly rate most risks; the realism to forget about those he can’t evaluate; the courage to write huge policies when the premium is appropriate; and the discipline to reject even the smallest risk when the premium is inadequate. It is rare to find a […]
View Article“Most of the annual variation in [investment] performance is due to luck, not skill.” …Bradford Cornell, California Institute of Technology As we’ve written in the past, in investing we generally underestimate luck. Even more interesting is the human tendency to attribute poor results to bad luck and good results to skill. Understanding the relative contributions […]
View Article“Chicks dig the long ball” …Greg Maddux, 1998 Nike commercial In a recent call with investors, Byron Wien, chief strategist of Blackstone, was asked why active managers don’t outperform their index benchmarks. He provided three explanations — two well‐worn, the third more novel. First, he said, a clients’ tendency to dwell on short‐term results penalizes […]
View Article“A turkey is fed for a thousand days by a butcher; every day confirms to its staff of analysts that butchers love turkeys “with increased statistical confidence.” The butcher will keep feeding the turkey until a few days before Thanksgiving. Then comes that day when it is really not a very good idea to be […]
View Article“Don’t gamble; take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up, then sell it. If it don’t go up, don’t buy it.” …Will Rogers I recently read an article that compared investment marketing to the manufacture of fishing lures. The comparison, so the article goes, is that the […]
View Article“The investor’s chief problem and even his worst enemy is likely to be himself.” …Benjamin Graham There’s an old saw about two young fish swimming along, and they happen to meet an older fish swimming the other way, who nods at them and says, “Morning, boys, how’s the water?” And the two young fish swim […]
View Article“There are two different types of people in the world, those who want to know, and those who want to believe.” …Friedrich Nietzsche Laurus prefers to describe our investments as “emerging blue chip companies” as opposed to the traditional industry term “small cap”. Our deep fundamental investment process uncovers businesses that create long‐term wealth for […]
View Article“The thing I find most interesting about investing is how paradoxical it is: how often the things that seem most obvious—on which everyone agrees—turn out not to be true.” …Howard Marks One of the most misunderstood investment allocations in Canada is Canadian equity. Over the past few years, institutional investors have been reducing their Canadian […]
View Article“Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” — Peter Lynch A recent blog post by Sam Altman, CEO of Y Combinator, turned the phrase “the days are long but the decades are short”. Now, being admittedly sardonic, Sam is […]
View Article“The speculator’s primary interest lies in anticipating and profiting from market fluctuations. The investor’s primary interest lies in acquiring and holding suitable securities at suitable prices.” — Benjamin Graham While we seldom like to make specific market comments, the recent deterioration in stock prices merits a brief observation. At mid‐year, the SP500 Index was 75 […]
View Article“In business, I look for economic castles protected by unbreachable moats.” — Warren Buffett Webster’s dictionary defines a moat as “a deep, wide ditch that is usually filled with water and that goes around the walls of a place (such as a castle) to protect it from being attacked” (emphasis added). Obviously, the wider and […]
View Article“[…] more thoughtful decision-making will lead to better overall results, and more thoughtful decision-making can be encouraged by evaluating decisions on how well they were made rather than on outcome.” — Robert Rubin, Former US Treasury Secretary We were recently sent a comment from a mutual fund company discussing returns for their small cap product. […]
View ArticleWe couldn’t help smiling at the recent Dilbert cartoon, especially given this past month’s 7.2% return. Scott Adams’ sardonic humour has always provided a regular source of chuckles. Being somewhat technologically challenged, I was a particular fan of the strip where the pointy‐haired boss announces the new password policy for the company: “Starting today, all […]
View Article“Confronted with the challenge to distil the secret of sound investment into three words, we venture the motto, Margin of Safety.” — Benjamin Graham While many investors claim to wait for the “fat pitch”, history shows few actually act when the opportunity presents itself. The concept has its roots in baseball; waiting at the plate […]
View Article“Successful investing is anticipating the anticipations of others…” — John Maynard Keynes Unless you’ve spent the last number of weeks cocooned in some far away locale without access to media (for which I would offer my congratulations), the ongoing saga of OPEC oil production and its resulting impact to oil prices has, no doubt, reached […]
View Article“The four most dangerous words in investing are: ‘this time it’s different.’” — Sir John Templeton In his book “The Most Important Thing” Howard Marks opines that there is far too much randomness in the world for the future to be predictable. So, as we gradually pull away from the recent market correction on the […]
View Article“Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” — Peter Lynch There has been much ballyhoo in the press recently about the coming equity market correction. Accordingly, some investors choose to sit on the sidelines waiting patiently for the inevitable. […]
View Article“The world of finance hails the invention of the wheel over and over again, often in a slightly more unstable version.” — from “A Short History of Financial Euphoria” by John Kenneth Galbraith It is truly unfortunate that investors continue to be bamboozled by hucksters. Reuters recently carried a number of stories from India, England, […]
View Article“I believe that to have a great company you have to make two things great – the culture and the people. If these two things are great your organization can navigate the twists and turns to get you where you want to go.” — Ray Dalio, Bridgewater Associates This is our first commentary under the […]
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